Section 1. The matchday ahead
Projected — API-Football match rating, not MPG’s noteThe ratings to aim for
Ranked by the projected API-Football rating, not MPG’s note. The disc shows the tier (A to D); the line beneath, the rank on its line and the opponent.
Matchday 11 picks: the top five in each line
| Player | Club | Position | Tier | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukáš Hrádecký | Monaco | Goalkeeper | B | 1 |
| Matvey Safonov | Paris Saint-Germain | Goalkeeper | B | 2 |
| Jeffrey de Lange | Marseille | Goalkeeper | B | 3 |
| Yvon Mvogo | Lorient | Goalkeeper | B | 4 |
| Robin Risser | Lens | Goalkeeper | B | 5 |
| Vanderson | Monaco | Defender | B | 1 |
| Adrien-Mehdi Monfray | Troyes | Defender | B | 2 |
| Diego Coppola | Paris FC | Defender | B | 3 |
| Montassar Talbi | Lorient | Defender | B | 4 |
| Zachary Athekame | Lyon | Defender | B | 5 |
| Maxime Lopez | Paris FC | Midfielder | B | 1 |
| Lamine Camara | Monaco | Midfielder | B | 2 |
| Cristian Cásseres | Toulouse | Midfielder | B | 3 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou | Paris FC | Midfielder | B | 4 |
| Ilan Kebbal | Paris FC | Midfielder | B | 5 |
| Lassine Sinayoko | Paris FC | Forward | A | 1 |
| Florian Thauvin | Lens | Forward | B | 2 |
| Amine Gouiri | Marseille | Forward | B | 3 |
| Ludovic Ajorque | Brest | Forward | B | 4 |
| Cameron Archer | Auxerre | Forward | B | 5 |
The same picks as the pitch above, in order.
Method
- Projected rating: the player’s mean API-Football rating this season, adjusted by the league’s measured home/away gap and by what the opponent lets the players it faces earn (also measured). Nothing is hand-tuned.
- The ranking multiplies that rating by the chance he plays, read from his recent minutes (the most recent count most: the weight halves every match and a half). His starting rating is last season's mean, fading as this season's matches accumulate. A red card rules him out of the next round. A declared absence counts 0, a doubt 0.75.
- Tiers: A = a projected rating in the top 10% of this season’s ratings, B = the next 20%, C = the next 40%, D = the rest. The same scale is used for played matches below.
- Why a tier and not a number: API-Football’s rating is not MPG’s note (a different scale, a different algorithm). It ranks; it does not predict a mark out of 10.
- The defence bonus (+0.5 with four defenders, +1 with five) is MPG’s rule as published by the LFP; it is the one exact number here.
Mercato: who to buy
The eighteen players to target at your auction — 2 keepers, 6 defenders, 6 midfielders, 4 forwards — ranked by projected rating. No prices: MPG is a 500M auction with no official list.
Ranked by the projected API-Football rating, not MPG’s note.
Method
- The same ranking as the pitch above, carried to the eighteenth name, line by line. A rank, not a price: what a player is worth at your auction depends on your league.
- “Rated ≥ 6”: the number of matches rated 6 or more this season out of his rated matches — a fact, not a projection.
- Availability icons come from the API-Football feed, populated about a day before the matchday; midweek, no icon means “not yet reported”, not “fit”.
Section 2. Matchdays played
Settled — published ratings and match factsReliability
The share of matches rated 5 or more — the but-MPG threshold — and 6 or more this season, with 7 or more as a marker. At least 3 rated matches.
API-Football ratings, not MPG notes: on this scale almost every starter clears 5 and 6, hence the 7 column.
Method
- This season 100% of played matches are rated 5 or more by API-Football and 92% are rated 6 or more; the mean sits higher than on MPG’s scale, so the threshold of 5 sorts almost nobody here.
- The order: share of matches at 6 or more, then at 7 or more, then the number of rated matches.
- A substitute who comes on for five minutes still gets a rating; those matches count, which favours late arrivals in matches already won.
Keepers at 8
The share of matches in which the keeper is rated 8 or more this season, with 7 or more as a marker, plus his clean sheets and goals conceded — two match facts. At least 3 rated matches.
API-Football ratings, not MPG notes.
The defensive line, club by club
Each club’s keeper and defenders: their mean rating this season, ranked. MPG adds a defence bonus of +0.5 with four defenders on the pitch and +1 with five — the rule as published by the LFP.
Order and tier by the mean API-Football rating of keeper and defenders, not MPG’s note.
Method
- The mean covers every rated match of the club’s keepers and defenders this season (API-Football’s match position). Clean sheets and goals conceded are the club’s.
- The defence bonus depends on your formation, not on the club: this table says which clubs supply the best-rated defenders, and you choose how many to field.
The XI of matchday 9
Not advice, a fact: the eleven best ratings of the matchday, in the formation that adds them up best, defence bonus included.
The season, matchday by matchday
API-Football ratings as published after each match, not MPG notes. Nothing here is projected; a matchday without a rating is a match not played.
How our model has done
The same formula as section 1, replayed matchday by matchday over 11 Ligue 1 seasons (2015-16 to 2025-26) and then over this one, using only what was known before kick-off, and compared with what actually happened.
How MPG scores
MPG’s structure as the LFP publishes it; your league may set the auction and the deadline differently.
Method
- But MPG: a player rated at least 5 without scoring attacks the opposing line; he loses 1 point at the first line and 0.5 per line after, and scores if he reaches the keeper with a higher note. That is why reliability (2.1) and keepers at 8 (2.2) matter.
- Rotaldo: a slot left empty receives a rating of 2.5 — a hole in the line. The defence bonus (+0.5 with 4 defenders, +1 with 5) and the captain (+0.5) are the only numbers this page can apply exactly.
- MPG also adds event bonuses (goals, assists) to the note; the LFP does not publish their values and they are not modelled here.
The Trendline is independent — no link to MPG, the LFP or any club. Game names are the trademarks of their owners and are used to identify the game only. Projections computed by The Trendline from API-Football match data; no data from MPG is used.