Section 1. The giornata ahead
Projected · API-Football match rating, not the game's voteThe Best Picks, By Role
Ranked by API-Football's match rating, not by the Fantacalcio vote.
A projection, not a prediction of what will happen.
Giornata 8 picks: the top five in each role
| Player | Club | Position | Expected bonus | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Mandas | Lazio | Goalkeeper | +0.1 | A |
| Elia Caprile | Cagliari | Goalkeeper | −0.6 | A |
| Mike Maignan | AC Milan | Goalkeeper | −0.9 | A |
| Lorenzo Palmisani | Frosinone | Goalkeeper | −1.2 | A |
| Filip Stanković | Venezia | Goalkeeper | −1.4 | A |
| Nuno Tavares | Lazio | Defender | +1.3 | A |
| Carlos Augusto | Inter | Defender | +1.8 | A |
| Bremer | Juventus | Defender | +1.0 | A |
| Mario Gila | AC Milan | Defender | +0.5 | A |
| Jacobo Ramón Naveros | Como | Defender | +0.4 | A |
| Adrien Rabiot | AC Milan | Midfielder | +3.6 | A |
| Davide Frattesi | Lazio | Midfielder | +1.7 | A |
| Giorgi Kvernadze | Frosinone | Midfielder | +1.5 | A |
| Daniel Maldini | Cagliari | Midfielder | +1.6 | A |
| Nicolás Paz | Como | Midfielder | +1.3 | A |
| Marcus Thuram | Inter | Forward | +3.5 | A |
| Antonio Raimondo | Frosinone | Forward | +3.3 | A |
| Diego Moreira | AC Milan | Forward | +3.1 | A |
| Milutin Osmajić | Genoa | Forward | +3.0 | A |
| Nikola Krstović | Atalanta | Forward | +3.2 | B |
The same picks as the pitch above, in order.
Method
- Each player starts from this season's league matches: the mean of his API-Football ratings and his goals, assists and cards per 90 minutes over the whole season; minutes played count more when recent (the weight halves every match and a half). His starting rating is last season's mean, fading as this season's matches accumulate. A red card, or a fifth, tenth or fifteenth yellow, rules him out of the next round. It is the structure that held up best in the 2.1 test over eleven seasons.
- The expected rating is adjusted for venue (the home/away gap measured in this Serie A) and for the opponent (the rating that club concedes on average to the players it faces). Nothing is fitted: every coefficient is measured or is a rule of the game.
- The expected bonus is exact in the game's units (+3 goal, +1 assist, −1 per goal conceded for the keeper, and so on), from the player's rates and the opponent's measured strength. It is the number on the shirt, if he plays.
- The rating is a stand-in. The Fantacalcio vote is an editorial judgment that no archive lets us read; API-Football's match rating, an undisclosed algorithm on a 10-point scale, stands in for it. That is why it appears only as a tier (A–E, quintiles of the players with at least a 50% chance of playing) and as an ordering, never as a number.
- The ranking is: probability of playing × (expected rating + expected bonus). Out = 0, doubtful = ×0.75, from API-Football's injury feed at the time shown under the pitch.
The Listone: Who To Target At Your Auction
Three keepers, eight defenders, eight midfielders, six forwards — the standard roster — ranked by projection, with no prices.
Ranked by API-Football's match rating, not by the Fantacalcio vote.
Method
- The same formula as 1.1 but with no opponent, no venue and no availability multiplier: an auction is about the season, not the next giornata. The availability marker stays on the card.
- There are no prices because no price list is licensed: the order says who returns most, not what he costs.
- With 7 giornate played the window is short; the order firms up around the tenth.
The Defence Modifier
For each club: the keeper and the three defenders with the highest expected rating for giornata 8, and the bonus band that would follow.
Ranked by API-Football's match rating, not by the Fantacalcio vote.
Method
- Formula unverified from the source. Fantacalcio.it publishes the modifier's existence but not its formula on open pages; the description used here is third-party (fantacalcio-online.com): the mean of the pure votes of the keeper and the three best defenders, needing four rated defenders; 6.00–6.49 → +1, 6.50–6.99 → +3, 7.00+ → +6.
- The mean here is of expected API-Football ratings, not Fantacalcio votes: it orders the defences, it does not predict the exact bonus.
- The keeper is the one most likely to play; the defenders are the three highest expected ratings among those with at least a 50% chance of playing.
Section 2. Giornate already played
Settled · API-Football ratings and bonus from the match eventsHow Our Model Has Done
Ranked by API-Football's match rating, not by the Fantacalcio vote.
The Season, Giornata By Giornata
Ranked by API-Football's match rating, not by the Fantacalcio vote.
API-Football rating plus the exact bonus/malus from the match events, giornata by giornata. Nothing here is projected.
The Best XI Of Giornata 7
Ranked by API-Football's match rating, not by the Fantacalcio vote.
API-Football rating plus the exact bonus — the score the game would have given if the vote were this one.
Penalty Takers
Who has taken the penalties, by club: this season and last, from the match events.
Method
- Scored: 'Penalty' events in the match ledger. Missed: 'Missed Penalty' events or the per-player statistics' penalty.missed, whichever is higher per match — in 2025-26 the events ledger records zero against 25 in the statistics.
- Promoted clubs have no row for last season: that was Serie B.
Keepers And Clean Sheets: The −1 Exposure
Goals conceded per match, by club, this season — every goal conceded costs the keeper −1.
Counts over matches played, no projection. The first-choice keeper is the one with the most minutes.
How The Game Scores
Your league may differ: the full rules are at fantacalcio.it/regolamenti.
Captain: in the official game an optional vote-based bonus/malus, not a doubler. Not modelled.
Method
- The vote is 60–100% of a typical player's score; only prolific scorers are bonus-driven. That is why the ranking starts from the rating and the bonus is shown separately.
- The −1 per goal conceded applies to the keeper only in the standard reading; some leagues extend it to defenders.
Projections computed by The Trendline from API-Football match data. No data from Fantacalcio is used.Independent site. Not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Lega Serie A or Fantacalcio S.r.l. Game names are the trademarks of their owners and are used to identify the game only.