Section 1. The matchday ahead
Estimated points — DAZN Points not modelledThe best picks, by position
A projection, not a prediction of what will happen.
Matchday 10 picks: the top five at each position
| Player | Club | Position | Projected pts | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Vallés | Real Betis | Goalkeeper | 6.2 | A |
| Antonio Sivera | Alavés | Goalkeeper | 6.0 | A |
| David Soria | Getafe | Goalkeeper | 5.7 | A |
| Unai Simón | Athletic Club | Goalkeeper | 5.6 | A |
| Ionuț Radu | Celta Vigo | Goalkeeper | 5.3 | A |
| Álex Grimaldo | Atlético Madrid | Defender | 4.6 | A |
| Adrià Pedrosa | Rayo Vallecano | Defender | 4.3 | A |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | Alavés | Defender | 4.0 | A |
| Ville Koski | Alavés | Defender | 3.8 | A |
| Roy Revivo | Elche | Defender | 3.6 | B |
| Álvaro García | Rayo Vallecano | Midfielder | 6.0 | A |
| Alberto Moleiro | Villarreal | Midfielder | 4.9 | A |
| Robert Navarro | Athletic Club | Midfielder | 4.4 | A |
| Carlos Soler | Real Sociedad | Midfielder | 4.4 | A |
| Javier Hernandez | Espanyol | Midfielder | 4.2 | C |
| Sergio Camello | Rayo Vallecano | Forward | 7.4 | A |
| Roberto Fernández | Espanyol | Forward | 5.8 | A |
| Lucas Boyé | Alavés | Forward | 5.5 | A |
| Jonathan David | Atlético Madrid | Forward | 5.4 | A |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | Forward | 5.3 | A |
The same picks as the pitch above, in order.
Method
- The number on the shirt is P(plays) × the expected points from the game's table: minutes, goals, assists, clean sheet, cards, saves.
- Per-90 rates are measured over the player's own season; the minutes expectation weights recent matches more (the weight halves every match and a half). A red card, or a fifth, tenth or fifteenth yellow, rules him out of the next round. Nothing is tuned by hand.
- Modelled, not measured: the clean sheet, a Poisson on expected goals conceded, times the chance of playing 60 minutes.
- The opponent enters through two measured factors: what it concedes and what it creates, in goals and expected goals. The letter A/B/C is the tercile of the player's mean API-Football rating, not a mark from the game.
- Injuries and doubts: API-Football's list, populated roughly a day before each match. Out = 0, doubtful = ×0.75.
The best 14 the budget could buy
Solved exactly under the game's starting budget: 14 players, 2 keepers / 5 defenders / 4 midfielders / 3 forwards, an XI in a legal formation. Market values are used only as the constraint and are not shown.
Each fallback assumes that player alone is unavailable: the fourteen are not a set you can buy together.
Method
- The fallback is the best player at the same position costing the same or less who is not already in the squad.
- The bench scores nothing, so it holds the cheapest players the budget allows, as it does for any manager.
- The 2/5/4/3 split is our reading of a 14-player squad; the game publishes no fixed quota. Four midfielders allow five formations (3-4-3, 4-3-3, 4-4-2, 5-3-2, 5-4-1), not 3-5-2 or 4-5-1.
- Market values are read from the game's market when the page is built and are neither published nor stored.
Who is worth a bid
Ordered by projected points per unit of market value, among players we expect to play at least 45 minutes. Only the order is published.
An order, not a figure: market values are not shown.
Method
- Numerator: the projected points for the matchday ahead, as on the pitch above.
- Denominator: the game's market value when the page was built, rounded up to the nearest tenth.
- Players expected to play under 45 minutes are excluded: a cheap substitute with half a point would top the list without deserving to.
Section 2. Matchdays already played
Matches already played, scored with our tableThe best XI of matchday 9
Not a recommendation, a fact: the XI with the most points on our table, in a legal formation, with no budget.
Scored with our reproduction of the game's table; DAZN Points are not in it.
The season, matchday by matchday
Points reproduced with our table, matchday by matchday, settled matchdays only. Nothing here is projected.
How our model has done
What our order of the pitch would have given you, matchday by matchday, against what actually happened and against the game's own points.
Recoveries and clearances
Tackles, blocks and interceptions per match, as API-Football records them. The game scores Opta micro-stats with different definitions; this is an approximation, not the game's figure.
A counted average over matches played, with at least three matches carrying the data. Not a projection.
How the game scores
The game's event table, as published by jornadaperfecta.com. The official rules are at laligafantasy.com.
Method
- On top of this table the game adds DAZN Points each matchday (0 to 4, unpublished algorithm) and points for Opta micro-stats. Neither is modelled here.
- If you play Biwenger or Comunio the scoring is different: the order by position carries over, the table does not.
- Captain: scores double. Kept as it is.
The Trendline is independent of LaLiga, of LaLiga Fantasy and of every club. Game names are the trademarks of their owners and are used to identify the game only. Projections computed by The Trendline from API-Football match data; no data from LaLiga Fantasy is used.